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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 68

Carolina Panthers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(13:42) 5-M.Palardy punts 42 yards to LV 26, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-57-J.Cash. PENALTY on LV-32-A.Hamilton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 26.

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 68, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 26, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP