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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 57

Tennessee Titans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(:33) 6-B.Kern punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.53 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 57, worth -3.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 17, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model