Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 17 at the 80

Tennessee Titans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(6:41) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to IND 25, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-C.Rogers to IND 43 for 18 yards (45-J.Fowler). PENALTY on IND-86-E.Swoope, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at IND 35.

The Three Options

GO -2.90 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.48 EP
70% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 80, worth -4.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model