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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 19

Tennessee Titans 17 – Indianapolis Colts 24

What Actually Happened

(2:45) (Run formation) 71-D.Kelly reported in as eligible. 29-D.Murray left end to IND 19 for no gain (26-C.Geathers).

The Three Options

GO +2.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.13 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 19, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 29, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model