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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 19 at the 83

Tennessee Titans 17 – Indianapolis Colts 24

What Actually Happened

(8:03) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 46 yards to IND 37, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-C.Rogers to IND 39 for 2 yards (59-W.Woodyard).

The Three Options

GO -2.92 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.68 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 83, worth -4.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 41, worth -1.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model