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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 16 at the 31

Indianapolis Colts 21 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(10:55) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.95 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 31, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 41, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model