4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 29

Tennessee Titans 14 – Indianapolis Colts 21

What Actually Happened

(12:19) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.16 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 29, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +1.04 EP
What Happened
  • 79% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 39, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP