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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 57

Tennessee Titans 7 – Indianapolis Colts 21

What Actually Happened

(12:00) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 31-K.Byard. 47-A.Blake up the middle to TEN 41 for -2 yards (26-C.Geathers; 91-H.Ridgeway).

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.29 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 57, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 17, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model