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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 13 at the 84

Indianapolis Colts 21 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(13:29) 1-P.McAfee punts 49 yards to TEN 35, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 87-M.Mariani.

The Three Options

GO -2.71 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.66 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 84, worth -4.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 42, worth -2.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model