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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 24

Indianapolis Colts 21 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(2:18) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO +2.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.47 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 34, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP