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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 2

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(10:43) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short right to 13-T.Hilton for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +4.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.42 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 2, worth +0.72 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model