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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 12

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(9:49) 19-R.Aguayo 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.15 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 12, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 22, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP