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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 4

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:10) 5-C.Santos 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.43 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 4, worth +0.64 EP
KICK +2.43 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.37 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP