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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 36

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12

What Actually Happened

(6:34) 2-D.Colquitt punts 32 yards to TB 4, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-57-D.Alexander.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.13 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.71 EP
KICK +0.29 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model