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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 18

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

What Actually Happened

(10:04) 19-R.Aguayo 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.20 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 18, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 28, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model