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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(4:22) 19-R.Aguayo 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.75 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 3, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP