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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 74

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(8:47) 2-D.Colquitt punts 40 yards to TB 34, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.50 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP