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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 50

Philadelphia Eagles 15 – Seattle Seahawks 26

What Actually Happened

(1:52) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short right to 81-J.Matthews [56-C.Avril].

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.53 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 50, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +0.29 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.65 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model