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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 47

Seattle Seahawks 26 – Philadelphia Eagles 15

What Actually Happened

(3:28) 9-J.Ryan punts 31 yards to PHI 16, Center-48-N.Frese, downed by SEA-86-B.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +1.20 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 47, worth -2.37 EP
KICK -1.24 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.16 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 13, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model