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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 16 at the 81

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Seattle Seahawks 16

What Actually Happened

(14:13) 8-D.Jones punts 60 yards to SEA 21, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 22 for 1 yard (56-B.Braman).

The Three Options

GO -3.12 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.62 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 81, worth -4.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 38, worth -2.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model