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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 67

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Seattle Seahawks 16

What Actually Happened

(2:53) 8-D.Jones punts 37 yards to SEA 30, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.26 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 67, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 25, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP