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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 13 at the 20

New England Patriots 27 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(6:16) 3-S.Gostkowski 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.34 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.72 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model