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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 74

San Francisco 49ers 10 – New England Patriots 27

What Actually Happened

(9:22) 5-B.Pinion punts 44 yards to NE 30, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 24-Cy.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 74, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 32, worth -1.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model