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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 45

San Francisco 49ers 10 – New England Patriots 13

What Actually Happened

(4:24) 5-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-86-K.Nelson, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.62 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 45, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -0.91 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model