4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 41

New England Patriots 13 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(:01) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 28-J.White to SF 16 for 25 yards (33-R.Robinson). 19-yds YAC

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
What Happened
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +1.59 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 41, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.01 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.47 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.39 EP