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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 55

San Francisco 49ers 10 – New England Patriots 13

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 5-B.Pinion punts 31 yards to NE 24, Center-86-K.Nelson. 80-D.Amendola MUFFS catch, and recovers at NE 27. 80-D.Amendola to NE 27 for no gain (20-M.Cromartie).

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.50 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 55, worth -2.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 16, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model