Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 48

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(2:45) 3-B.Nortman punts 36 yards to DET 12, Center-46-C.Tinker. 12-A.Roberts MUFFS catch, touched at DET 12, RECOVERED by JAX-83-B.Koyack at DET 11. 83-B.Koyack to DET 11 for no gain (52-A.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.21 EP
69% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 48, worth -3.05 EP

KICK -1.49 EP

35% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
65% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model