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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 12 at the 87

Detroit Lions 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(5:40) 6-S.Martin punts 45 yards to JAX 42, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 13-R.Greene.

The Three Options

GO -2.70 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.48 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 87, worth -4.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 45, worth -1.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model