Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 57

Jacksonville Jaguars 19 – Detroit Lions 23

(8:27) 3-B.Nortman punts 42 yards to DET 15, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 12-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.50 EP
68% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 57, worth -2.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model