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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 95

Detroit Lions 6 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(6:17) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to JAX 43, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 13-R.Greene to JAX 46 for 3 yards (26-D.Carey).

The Three Options

GO -2.99 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.65 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 95, worth -5.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

PUNT -2.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 53, worth -2.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model