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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 57

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(8:33) 3-B.Nortman punts 54 yards to DET 3, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-30-C.Grant.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.96 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 57, worth -3.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 17, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP