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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 92

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(11:31) 3-B.Nortman punts 47 yards to DET 45, Center-46-C.Tinker. 12-A.Roberts for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -3.10 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.32 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 92, worth -5.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -3.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 50, worth -3.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model