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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 1

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(12:51) 11-S.Janikowski 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +4.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.15 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 1, worth +0.78 EP
KICK +2.17 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.02 EP