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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 39

Las Vegas Raiders 27 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(1:04) 28-L.Murray left tackle to HOU 33 for 6 yards (43-C.Moore). PENALTY on HOU-75-V.Wilfork, Unnecessary Roughness, 14 yards, enforced at HOU 33.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +0.93 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 39, worth -1.11 EP
KICK +0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 48, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.30 EP