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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 15

Houston Texans 20 – Las Vegas Raiders 20

What Actually Happened

(6:31) 33-A.Hunt left guard to LV 15 for no gain (53-M.Smith). Officials to measure for 1st down - Short. Houston challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2 at 06:15.)

The Three Options

GO +2.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.75 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 15, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model