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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 11

Houston Texans 17 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

What Actually Happened

(10:59) 8-N.Novak 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +3.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.24 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 22, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.54 EP