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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 2

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Houston Texans 17

What Actually Happened

(2:42) 11-S.Janikowski 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +3.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.09 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 2, worth +0.43 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP