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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 56

Houston Texans 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(14:21) 45-J.Prosch up the middle to HOU 46 for 2 yards (90-D.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.33 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 56, worth -3.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 17, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model