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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 41

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short right to 15-M.Crabtree (24-J.Joseph).

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.00 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 41, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +0.58 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.78 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model