Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 60

Houston Texans 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

(2:35) 9-S.Lechler punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.22 EP
67% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 60, worth -3.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model