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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 69

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(6:31) 7-M.King punts 59 yards to HOU 10, Center-59-J.Condo. 13-B.Miller to HOU 11 for 1 yard (18-A.Holmes).

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 69, worth -3.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 27, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model