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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 72

Cincinnati Bengals 12 – Buffalo Bills 16

What Actually Happened

(4:26) 10-K.Huber punts 54 yards to BUF 18, Center-46-C.Harris. 15-B.Tate to BUF 38 for 20 yards (33-R.Burkhead).

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.99 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 72, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 30, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model