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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 53

Buffalo Bills 16 – Cincinnati Bengals 12

What Actually Happened

(5:44) 6-C.Schmidt punts 46 yards to CIN 7, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 20 for 13 yards (36-J.Meeks).

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.41 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 53, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -1.41 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 15, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model