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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 86

Cincinnati Bengals 12 – Buffalo Bills 16

What Actually Happened

(7:26) 10-K.Huber punts 42 yards to BUF 44, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 15-B.Tate.

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.98 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 86, worth -4.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 44, worth -1.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model