4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 42

Buffalo Bills 16 – Cincinnati Bengals 12

What Actually Happened

(8:28) 6-C.Schmidt punts 33 yards to CIN 9, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by BUF-57-L.Alexander.

The Three Options

GO +0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.39 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 42, worth -1.99 EP
KICK -0.66 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP