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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 2

Buffalo Bills 13 – Cincinnati Bengals 12

What Actually Happened

(12:08) 2-D.Carpenter 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +3.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.55 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 2, worth +0.33 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.62 EP