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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 44

Cincinnati Bengals 12 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(5:23) 10-K.Huber punts 34 yards to BUF 10, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 15-B.Tate.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.67 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 44, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.82 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model