Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 85

Buffalo Bills 13 – Cincinnati Bengals 12

What Actually Happened

(6:37) 6-C.Schmidt punts 39 yards to CIN 46, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 24-A.Jones MUFFS catch, and recovers at CIN 46. 24-A.Jones pushed ob at BUF 44 for 10 yards (36-J.Meeks).

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.50 EP
53% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 85, worth -5.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model