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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 36

Buffalo Bills 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 12

What Actually Happened

(10:30) 2-D.Carpenter 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.68 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 36, worth -2.01 EP
KICK -0.01 EP
What Happened
  • 59% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.36 EP