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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 8

Buffalo Bills 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 6

What Actually Happened

(9:06) 2-D.Carpenter 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +1.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.57 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 8, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model